Industry groups warn that the issue extends beyond fuel markets and affects a product category used by millions of passenger vehicles. For consumers, the first visible impact may not be shortages but higher costs and tighter availability for certain motor oils.
The lubricant market depends on a global and highly specialized supply chain. Nearly half of the Group III base oil used in U.S. synthetic motor oils comes from the Persian Gulf, while about 30 percent comes from South Korea. These oils are widely used in newer vehicles, and supply disruptions are increasing pressure across the market.
Supply Disruptions Are Reducing Access To Key Synthetic Oil Components
According to MotorTrend, some of the world’s largest Group III suppliers have either suffered physical damage or faced major export disruptions linked to the conflict. Those suppliers include Shell’s Pearl GTL facility in Qatar, Bahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO) in Bahrain, and operations run by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) in the United Arab Emirates.
The result has been a sharp reduction in shipments of premium base stocks used in many current synthetic motor oil formulations.
Under normal conditions, shortages of premium Group III oils can be partially managed by reformulating some products with lower-tier Group II stocks. This time, that adjustment has become more difficult because refiners are redirecting significant volumes of Group II material toward diesel fuel production, where margins have risen during the broader energy disruption.
The Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA) says this shift is adding pressure across the U.S. motor oil supply chain.
Industry Warns Inventories May Not Absorb The Pressure For Long
Holly Alfano, CEO of ILMA, said the market is already showing signs of strain, with some suppliers reportedly paying double for certain base oil stocks.
“A lot of times, if the suppliers can’t get base oils, they draw from the inventories they already have,” Alfano told MotorTrend. “But once those are depleted, according to industry analysts that we’ve been talking to, we’re going to have real issues by mid-June.”
Alfano said newer passenger vehicles, including models such as the Toyota Camry and Honda CR-V, may be more exposed because many engines produced after 2013 rely on low-viscosity synthetic oils that depend heavily on Group III base stocks.
Older vehicles and many heavy-duty diesel applications can often operate with a wider range of lubricant formulations and viscosity grades, which gives suppliers and service providers more flexibility if supply conditions worsen.
If restrictions affecting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continue, Alfano said consumers could begin noticing meaningful price increases within roughly a month as inventories decline and replacement materials become more costly and more difficult to obtain.
Temporary Formulation Changes And Limited Domestic Alternatives Are Under Discussion
ILMA has been in contact with the U.S. Department of Energy while the industry looks for ways to ease supply pressure.
One of the options being discussed involves regulatory and permitting changes intended to accelerate domestic Group III production projects planned in Texas and Mississippi. Even under favorable timelines, those facilities are not expected to begin operating before 2027.
“We’re still very reliant on products coming out of the Middle East when it comes to lubricants,” said Alfano. “It’s a global market, and we’re not completely energy independent when it comes to lubricants,” he added
In the short term, consumers may begin seeing engine oils sold with temporarily revised formulations as manufacturers adapt to reduced access to Group III stocks. ILMA said those products would still be required to meet all applicable performance standards established by automakers and the American Petroleum Institute, even if their composition differs from what customers are used to purchasing.
For consumers, the immediate impact is expected to be higher prices, tighter availability for certain lubricants, and temporary substitutions where vehicle specifications permit. Even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed immediately, Alfano said cargo leaving the Persian Gulf would still require roughly 45 days to reach the United States.
Until then, consumers are advised to follow the oil specifications listed in their owner’s manuals and remain attentive to any supply or formulation changes that may affect their vehicles.
