Added on May 31, 2019  The News Wheel   ,
No Comments

RV Shipments Could Predict Next Recession

Decrease Font Size Increase Font Size Text Size Print This Page
Camping at Yosemite National Park
Photo: Fabien Rousselot | Unsplash

The United States economy has expanded over the past decade, but there are signs that another recession may be on the way despite the tax cuts, low interest rates, and bailouts.

Strangely enough, one of the strongest indicators of a coming recession has historically been RV shipments. In a 2016, The Atlantic highlighted how the RV industry has repeatedly and consistently fallen ahead of more widespread economic troubles. In fact, it tracks closely with the Leading Economic Index, which strives to predict how the economy will fare based on a number of complex factors.

“RV sales started dropping in 1999; the economy did not crash until 2001,” Alana Semuels wrote for The Atlantic. “Between 2006 and 2007, RV sales again dropped — this time 9.5 percent. The GDP still grew in that period, at an annual rate of 4.5 percent. But between 2007 and 2009 GDP growth slowed to 1.7 percent, and dropped 2 percent between 2008 and 2009.”

Related: How to finance your RV

So how are RV sales doing today? That’s where it gets tricky. When that 2016 article was written, RV sales were definitely on the rise, but more recent reports are conflicted. Though the RV industry was off to a slow start in 2019, there have also been multiple market studies claiming RVs were set for rapid growth. According to Seeking Alpha, shipments began declining in the second half of 2018 and have continued to decline so far in 2019.

It’s hard to gauge the proper state of the RV industry and its relevance to the overall economy, but one thing is for sure: If you’re considering buying an RV, you’re probably doing pretty well, and there’s a good chance you’re a millennial.

Related: Try these campfire pies on your next camping trip

News Sources: The Atlantic, Seeking Alpha